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尽管汇率波动对于一国内部各地区而言是一个共有的宏观冲击,但由于各地区经济结构、发展水平、开放程度和制度环境等不同,汇率的价格传递效应也必然是有差异的,这也将进一步带来差异化的福利效应。本文基于人民币汇改后2005年7月至2014年6月中国31个省市的月度面板数据,采用动态非平稳面板估计的实证分析方法,研究了人民币汇率波动对国内各地居民消费价格的差异化影响。结果显示,人民币升值在总体上对国内物价有显著的负向影响,但这种价格传递效应存在明显的地区和产品异质性。另外,人民币汇率对价格的影响在短期内并不显著,更多是一个长期影响。这些新的发现为我们未来的政策制定和福利效应评估提供了新的启示。
Although the fluctuation of exchange rate is a common macro shock for all the regions in a country, due to the different economic structure, development level, openness and institutional environment in different regions, the price transfer effect of exchange rate will inevitably be different Will further bring differentiated welfare effects. Based on the monthly panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from July 2005 to June 2014 after the RMB exchange rate reform, this paper uses the empirical analysis method of dynamic non-stationary panel estimation to study the differences of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the domestic consumer prices influences. The results show that RMB appreciation has a significant negative impact on domestic prices in general, but there are obvious regional and product heterogeneity in this price transmission effect. In addition, the impact of the RMB exchange rate on prices is not significant in the short term, and more is a long-term effect. These new findings provide new insights into our future policy-making and welfare effects assessments.