2008年的全球金融危机已经过去6年多时间,全球经济正在步入曲折性与脆弱性并举的复苏轨道。从未来5~10年甚至更长时期的趋势来看,全球经济的不确定性和复杂性日益上升,将出现诸多新的结构性变化和革命性变化。笔者试作一预测。趋势一:全球经济仍难完全走出危机阴影,已由全球金融危机前的快速发展期进入深度结构调整期全球经济复苏步伐低于预期,产出缺口依然保 More than six years have passed since the global financial crisis of 2008 and the global economy is on the path to recovery with both tortuousness and vulnerability. In the next five to 10 years or even longer periods, the uncertainty and complexity of the global economy are on the rise. Many new structural and revolutionary changes will emerge. I try a prediction. Trend one: the global economy is still difficult to completely out of the shadow of the crisis, has been rapid development period before the global financial crisis into the depth of structural adjustment period The pace of global economic recovery is lower than expected, the output gap still