本文综合考虑地震预报的三要素(震级、时间、地点),采用模糊集理论的综合评判模型,对预报的效果进行模糊综合评判。在综合评判的基础上,应用判定理论中的序贯分析原理,对多次预报的模糊综合评判的结果进行序贯判定。采用这种判定方法,平均可用最少的预报试验次数判定预报方法的预报能力。 This paper synthetically considers the three elements (magnitude, time, place) of earthquake prediction, and uses the comprehensive evaluation model of fuzzy set theory to make a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the forecasting results. On the basis of comprehensive evaluation, applying the principle of sequential analysis in judgment theory, the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of multiple forecasts is judged sequentially. Using this method of decision, the forecasting ability of the forecasting method can be judged on the average with the least number of forecasting experiments.