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针对高速铁路事故致因复杂的特点及高速铁路运营安全评价研究现状,提出应用耗散结构和熵理论来研究高速铁路运营事故演化机理。首先,在分析高速铁路安全运营影响因素的基础上,提出基于信息熵的典型事故安全要素集构建方法。其次,基于耗散结构和熵理论,研究高速铁路运营事故的演化机理。给出高速铁路运营安全系统的熵流模型及其熵值计算方法。通过系统熵变,判别事故演化方向。最后,通过分析高速铁路脱轨事故的演化机理,实例验证该方法的合理性和可行性。研究表明,把熵作为一个参数,能够揭示高速铁路运营事故的演化趋势;流入负熵流和排出正熵流,能够保持系统稳定有序,有效防止事故发生。
Aiming at the complicated characteristics of high-speed railway accidents and the status quo of safety assessment of high-speed railway operations, this paper proposes the application of dissipative structure and entropy theory to study the evolution mechanism of high-speed railway accidents. First of all, on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of high-speed railway safety operation, a method of building a typical accident safety factor set based on information entropy is proposed. Secondly, based on dissipative structure and entropy theory, the evolution mechanism of high-speed railway operation accidents is studied. The entropy flow model of high speed railway operation safety system and its entropy calculation method are given. Through the systematic entropy change, the direction of accident evolution is discriminated. Finally, by analyzing the evolution mechanism of high-speed railway derailment accidents, the feasibility and feasibility of this method are verified by examples. The research shows that using entropy as a parameter can reveal the evolvement trend of high-speed railway operation accidents. The inflow of negative entropy flow and discharge of positive entropy flow can keep the system stable and orderly and effectively prevent accidents.