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本文根据现有国际经济周期协动性形成机制的研究成果,将经济体之间相互影响的诸多单一关系汇总整合成系统关系,构建出两国经济周期协动关系模型,再以中美两国数据为基础对模型进行实证检验和形式修正,最终通过数值模拟方法对中美之间的需求管理政策博弈对策进行模拟。研究发现,虽然中国在全球经济中的影响力逐渐提升,但在与美国的宏观政策博弈的过程之中总体上仍处于劣势,因此中国在政策博弈中不仅要考虑经济规模、影响力上的相对优劣,也要考虑行动时序所带来的顺序优势和信息优势。经济规模与影响力上的劣势可以通过“随机应变、因时而动”而得到补偿。
According to the existing research results of the formation mechanism of the synergetic formation in the international economic cycle, this paper summarizes and integrates many single relationships that affect each other among the economies into a systematic relationship and constructs a model of the synergies between the two countries in the economic cycle. Then, Data as the basis for the empirical test and formal correction of the model, and finally by numerical simulation method to simulate the demand management policy game between China and the United States. The study found that while China’s influence in the global economy gradually increased, its overall disadvantage in the course of the game with the United States macroeconomic policy should not only consider the relative size and influence of the economy in the policy game The pros and cons, but also to consider the sequence of actions brought by the order advantage and information superiority. Weaknesses in economic size and influence can be compensated by “adapting to changes and changing circumstances.”