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本文从能源价格的角度出发,在定义能源约束量化指标的基础上,建立了能源约束对出口贸易结构影响的动态计量模型,并从长期和短期两个角度,分析了能源约束对出口贸易结构的动态影响。研究结果表明,从短期看,能源约束通过直接的价格冲击和间接的生产要素部门转移,带动贸易结构的优化调整;从长期看,能源约束对出口贸易结构的调整方向具有不确定。
From the perspective of energy prices, this paper establishes a dynamic econometric model of the impact of energy constraints on export trade structures based on the definition of quantitative indicators of energy constraints, and analyzes the impact of energy constraints on export trade structures from both long-term and short-term perspectives. Dynamic impact. The results of the study indicate that in the short term, energy constraints drive the optimization of trade structure through direct price shocks and indirect transfer of production factors. In the long run, energy constraints have an uncertain direction for the adjustment of export trade structure.