一、引言 极值理论是概率论中的一个重要分支,在许多领域已经广泛应用。例如,研究洪水的统计规律和洪水预报,研究地震活动性等。本文在进一步分析地震过程和过去工作的基础上,对极值分布函数进行了修改,应用新的分布函数,用于偿试中长期地震预报。 由于极值理论本身的特点,对观测资料要求较低,它不需要一段时间(譬如50年)内 I. INTRODUCTION Extreme value theory is an important branch in probability theory and has been widely used in many fields. For example, study the statistical laws of floods and flood forecasting, study seismicity, etc. Based on the further analysis of the earthquake process and the past work, this paper modified the extremal distribution function and applied the new distribution function to test the long-term earthquake prediction. Due to the characteristics of the extreme value theory itself, the observation data is less demanding and it does not take a period of time (for example, 50 years)