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滑坡活动的预知预测可分两个阶段:即休止状态中的滑坡开始活动初期的预知.与缓慢运动中的滑坡达到急速崩坍时的预测两种.后者为从地表变位的蠕变曲线中计算其崩坍时刻.人们都知道有所谓斋藤公式之类.这种计算方法只要取得准确的记录在手.在进入第三蠕变时基本上是可以算出其崩坍时间的.然而,即使在这种情况下,认为已属于第三场变的运动,也有时忽又发生减速,或缓速交替运动,而不一定迅速出现崩坍现象,因此不可避免地也常产生时间推错情况.这总的来说不是从滑坡内部运动机制上计算出的结果.而只是依靠地表变位,这就难免出现失误.但如果从现象上看确实快要到达最终阶段出现加速.则在崩坍前30分钟时根据蠕变曲线推定的时刻.根据过去的经验有2~3例只出现过5分钟左右的误差.
The prediction of landslide activity can be divided into two stages: the early prediction of landslide start-up in the pause state and the prediction of the rapid landslide collapse in the slow-moving state, the latter is from the creep curve of surface displacement Calculate its collapse moment.It is known that there is a so-called Saito formula, etc. This calculation method is only accurate to obtain the record in the hand.When entering the third creep is basically able to calculate the collapse time.However, even in this In some cases, the movement that is considered to belong to the third field change, and sometimes the deceleration occurs suddenly or retarded, may not collapse rapidly rapidly, and inevitably, there will inevitably occur the wrong time. Is not calculated from the internal mechanism of landslide kinetic results.Only rely on the surface displacement, which is inevitable mistakes, but if from the point of view is indeed about to reach the final stage of acceleration.At 30 minutes before the collapse according to the creep According to the past experience, there are 2 to 3 cases with only about 5 minutes of error.