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针对灰色系统模型在变形预测中存在预测结果不理想的问题,给出马尔可夫残差修正模型,首先应用灰色预测模型对未来的沉降变形进行预测,然后用马尔可夫过程对预测结果修正,提高预测精度。应用表明:马尔可夫残差修正模型的预测值与观测数据的拟合结果优于传统灰色系统预测模型以及残差修正模型,其预测精度明显提高,沉降预测值更为可靠,可为工程监测提供科学决策依据。
Aiming at the problem that the gray system model has unsatisfactory prediction results in deformation prediction, the Markov residual error correction model is given. The gray prediction model is used to predict the future settlement deformation. Then, the Markov process is used to correct the prediction results. Improve prediction accuracy. The application shows that the fitting results of the prediction and observation data of the Markov Residual Correction Model are better than those of the traditional gray system prediction model and the residual error correction model. The prediction accuracy is obviously improved and the settlement prediction value is more reliable. Provide scientific basis for decision-making.