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基于1990-2013年中国及其28个主要贸易伙伴的相关数据,在非线性框架内探讨中国经济周期国际协同在不同区制、不同国家组别间的差异。结果表明:在不同区制内国际协同的持续性存在非对称性;面对区制状态转换的冲击,中国经济的动态调整行为在持续时间、反应速度及调整幅度上存在差异;双边直接投资、产业结构相似度与金融开放程度对国际协同的影响存在国家异质性特征;贸易一体化对中国经济周期国际协同的影响存在产业结构的门槛效应。
Based on the relevant data of China and its 28 major trading partners from 1990 to 2013, this paper explores the differences in the international synergies between China and the rest of the world in different regions and countries in a non-linear framework. The results show that there is asymmetry in the continuity of international cooperation in different districts. In the face of the impact of the change of state-to-state transition, the dynamic adjustment of China’s economy shows differences in duration, reaction speed and adjustment range. Bilateral direct investment, The similarity of industrial structure and degree of financial openness have the characteristics of national heterogeneity; the influence of trade integration on the international cooperation of China’s economic cycle has the threshold effect of industrial structure.