论文部分内容阅读
确定现实方法(DRM)基于响应面分析方法进行不确定性评价,并在现实模型中引入保守裕度,使得最终结果包络不确定性的可信度大于95%。本文在DRM的基础上,采用独立于不确定性参数的非参数统计法代替响应面分析方法,以峰值包壳温度为目标参数,对典型3环路压水堆核电厂的大破口失水事故(LB-LOCA)进行不确定性分析,结果表明:基于非参数统计法得到的满足95%/95%概率要求的峰值包壳温度被原有DRM的计算值所包络,通过该改进方法可以获得更大的安全裕量。
Determine the reality method (DRM) Uncertainty evaluation based on response surface analysis method, and introduce the conservative margin in the real model, making the credibility of the final result envelope uncertainty greater than 95%. Based on the DRM, a non-parametric statistical method independent of the uncertainty parameter is used instead of the response surface analysis method. The peak crustal temperature is taken as the target parameter to deal with the large-scale water loss accident of a typical 3-loop PWR nuclear power plant (LB-LOCA). The results show that the peak crust temperature which meets the 95% / 95% probability requirement based on the nonparametric statistical method is enveloped by the calculated value of the original DRM. Through this improved method, Get greater safety margin.