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中国经济增长的可持续性问题一直是经济研究的热点,尤其是中国经济进入新常态后,这一问题更加突出。本文通过测算中国经济增长的DEA-Malmquist全要素生产率指数,将其分解为技术效率变化、技术进步、纯技术效率变化、规模效率变化,从要素贡献度的视角研究中国经济增长的可持续性。研究表明,由资本拉动和劳动供给构成的经济增长,全要素生产率偏低,但不同区域全要素生产率指数偏低的原因并不相同。在供给侧改革下,中国政府应因地制宜地对三大经济区域采取不同策略提高全要素生产率,为中国经济增长提供持续动力。
The issue of the sustainability of China’s economic growth has been a hot topic in economic research all the more, especially since China’s economy has entered a new normal. By measuring DEA-Malmquist total factor productivity index of China’s economic growth, this paper decomposes it into technical efficiency change, technological progress, pure technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change, and studies the sustainability of China’s economic growth from the perspective of factor contribution. The research shows that the total factor productivity is low due to the growth of capital and labor supply, but the reasons for the low total factor productivity index in different regions are not the same. Under supply-side reform, the Chinese government should adopt different strategies to adjust the TFP to the three major economic regions in accordance with the local conditions and provide a sustained impetus to China’s economic growth.