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基于会计模型与市场模型的信息含量考虑,本研究采用离散时间风险模型技术实证比较了Merton DD模型与各Z值模型对企业财务困境的预测能力。结果表明,违约距离和各Z值指标都涵盖了有关企业财务困境的重要信息,但违约距离的信息含量则较弱。总体上,财务信息对预测企业财务困境具有不可替代的作用,会计比率作为一种分析技术,其作用应被加强而不是被弱化。
Based on the information content of accounting model and market model, this study uses the discrete-time risk model to empirically compare the predictive ability of Merton DD model and each Z-value model to the financial distress of enterprises. The results show that the default distance and each Z value index contain important information about the financial distress of enterprises, but the information content of default distance is relatively weak. In general, financial information plays an irreplaceable role in predicting the financial distress of enterprises. As an analytical technique, accounting rates should be strengthened rather than weakened.