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一、宏观经济展望人民银行研究局据计量模型对我国2016年GDP增速的基准预测为6.8%,这个总体预测包括了对几个主要宏观变量的的判断。一是预计固定资产投资的名义增长率有所上升,但是实际增长率是微幅下降。二是消费基本保持平稳。三是出口和进口的名义增长幅度较2015年有比较明显的提高,主要是因为价格因素。进口去年是14.8%的下降,今年假设油价能维持稳定,
I. Macroeconomic Prospects According to the measurement model, the PBC Bureau of Research benchmarked China’s GDP growth in 2016 to 6.8%. This overall forecast includes judgments on several major macroeconomic variables. First, the nominal growth rate of investment in fixed assets is expected to have risen, but the real growth rate has declined slightly. Second, the basic consumption remained stable. Thirdly, the notional growth rates of exports and imports have been significantly higher than those in 2015, mainly due to the price factor. Imports dropped 14.8% last year. This year, assuming that oil prices can remain stable,