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运用石油资源量定量评价的一种新方法——模糊数学法，对塔里木盆地石炭系烃源岩不同沉积有机相的生烃潜力进行评价预测，该方法不同于前人常用的盆地模拟法、趋势面分析法、干酪根降解动力学法等，它是将地质变量作为模糊变量，用模糊数学的原理进行计算。将石炭系烃源岩的厚度、有机质丰度、有机质类型、有机质成熟度及沉积有机相作为模糊变量，计算不同沉积有机相烃源岩生烃潜力。计算结果表明，开阔台地沉积有机相和半闭塞台地沉积有机相生烃潜力最大，蒸发台地沉积有机相和开放泻湖沉积有机相的生烃潜力次之，并根据计算结果，指出塔里木盆地西部石炭系烃源岩发育，在合适的构造条件下最有可能钻遇石炭系自生自储自盖式的大油气藏，同时应重视塔里木盆地东部地区石炭系泥质烃源岩的生烃贡献。
A new method of quantitative evaluation of petroleum resources - fuzzy mathematics is used to evaluate and predict the hydrocarbon generation potentials of different sedimentary organic phases of Carboniferous hydrocarbon source rocks in Tarim Basin. This method is different from the basin modeling method commonly used in the past, Surface analysis, kerogen degradation kinetics, etc., it is the geological variables as fuzzy variables, calculated by the principle of fuzzy mathematics. Taking the thickness of Carboniferous hydrocarbon source rocks, organic matter abundance, organic matter type, organic matter maturity and sedimentary organic phase as the fuzzy variables, the hydrocarbon generation potentials of different sedimentary organic phase source rocks are calculated. The calculated results show that the hydrocarbon potential of the organic phase in the open platform sedimentary organic phase and the semi-occluded platform is the second, followed by the hydrocarbon generation potential of the evaporative platform sedimentary organic phase and the open lagoon sedimentary organic phase. According to the calculation results, the hydrocarbon generation potential in the western Tarim Basin Source rock development is most likely to occur under the appropriate tectonic setting. Carboniferous authigenic self-capped reservoirs have been drilled. At the same time, the hydrocarbon generation contribution of Carboniferous muddy source rocks in the eastern Tarim Basin should be emphasized.