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近期内,即使面临外部需求不足、投资规模下降、地方政府债务等问题的挑战,在积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策相配合的框架下,通过减税等方法及时进行政策的微调,中国经济并无所谓的“硬着陆”问题,不会陷入衰退的泥潭。由于中国经济所具有的梯度发展特点,中国经济总体上处于工业化的中后期,中国经济2012年的发展前景乃至整个“十二五”期间的发展前景都是令人乐观的。但是从长期看,由于中国在经济发展中的结构性问题日益突出,原有的廉价劳动力和其他生产要素的优势逐渐改变,中小民营企业经营状况相对恶化,资源、环境和创新等瓶颈日渐突出,中国经济将经历一个比较困难的调整期。因此,以科学发展观为指导,加快结构调整并进一步进行相应的体制改革,刻不容缓。
In the near term, even in the face of challenges such as insufficient external demand, declining investment scale and local government debt, China’s economy will be promptly adjusted under the framework of an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It does not matter “hard landing” problem, will not fall into the quagmire of recession. Due to the gradient development characteristic of China’s economy, China’s economy is generally in the mid-to-late stage of industrialization. The development prospects of China’s economy in 2012 and even the whole “12th Five-Year Plan” are both optimistic. However, in the long run, as the structural problems in China’s economic development have become increasingly prominent, the advantages of the original low-cost labor force and other factors of production have gradually changed, the operating conditions of small and medium-sized private-owned enterprises have deteriorated, and bottlenecks such as resources, environment and innovation have become increasingly prominent. China’s economy will experience a more difficult period of adjustment. Therefore, with the guidance of the scientific concept of development, it is imperative to accelerate structural adjustment and further carry out the corresponding institutional reforms.