20世纪末至21世纪初将是我国经济发展的关键时期。我国的经济发展潜力到底有多大?对此我们采用国际对比、模型测算以及定性分析的方法对21世纪初叶我国经济发展、人民生活、综合国力前景进行了预测,其结果令人振奋。 (一)经济发展预测。根据模型测算,从现在起到本世纪末,我国国内生产总值GDP可保持年均9%的增长率,2000—2010年GDP的增长率不会低于7.5%。按1990年不变价格测算,2000年和2010年我国GDP将分别达到 The end of the twentieth century to the beginning of the twenty-first century will be the crucial period for the economic development of our country. In the end, we predict the prospects of China’s economic development, people’s livelihood and comprehensive national strength in the early 21st century by using the method of international comparison, model calculation and qualitative analysis. The result is very encouraging. (A) economic development forecast. According to the model calculation, from now till the end of this century, China’s GDP can maintain an average annual growth rate of 9%. The growth rate of GDP in 2000-2010 will not be lower than 7.5%. According to 1990 constant price estimates, China’s GDP in 2000 and 2010 will reach respectively