论文部分内容阅读
针对一般电网企业综合计划关键指标预测方法具有预测对象单一、过度依赖历史数据等问题,分析了售电量、线损率、购电量、售电均价、市场占有率及毛利润等6个综合计划关键指标的特点及计算方法,进而采用系统动力学方法构建了4个预测子系统,并结合某电网企业的实际数据,运用STELLA软件进行了算例仿真。结果表明,采用系统动力学方法能有效地反映电网企业未来的经营状况,合理、实用。
Aiming at the problems that the prediction method of the key indicators of general power grid enterprise comprehensive plan has single forecasting object and over-reliance on historical data, the paper analyzes six comprehensive plans such as electricity sales, line loss, electricity purchase, average selling price, market share and gross profit The characteristics and calculation methods of the key indicators, and then use the system dynamics method to build a four prediction subsystem, combined with the actual data of a power grid enterprises, the use of STELLA software simulation study. The results show that the use of system dynamics can effectively reflect the future operation of power grid enterprises, reasonable and practical.