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为了准确预测机场水泥混凝土道面使用寿命,根据道面的使用性能特点,确定道面破损度为道面使用寿命的控制指标。采用灰色系统理论建立了道面使用寿命灰色预测模型,利用计算原点残差的方法检验模型的精度,并采用数据序列中最近时间点的实测值为求解的初始条件改进模型求解过程。研究结果表明:机场水泥混凝土道面破损度与道面使用时间呈指数型递增关系,道面剩余使用寿命随使用时间呈指数型衰减;道面破损度预测值与实测值的误差不超过5%,因此,该模型有效,可用于定期检测的道面。
In order to accurately predict the service life of airport concrete pavement, according to the characteristics of pavement performance, determine the pavement damage degree as the control index of Pavement Life. The gray prediction model of pavement life is established by using the gray system theory. The accuracy of the model is tested by calculating the residual of the origin. The initial conditions of the data sequence are used to improve the model solving process. The results show that the damage degree of airport cement concrete pavement and the pavement use time increase exponentially, and the remaining service life of the pavement declines exponentially with the time of use. The error between the prediction value of pavement damage and the measured value does not exceed 5% Therefore, the model is valid and can be used for periodic testing of pavements.