急性失代偿性心力衰竭院内死亡率的危险分层:分类回归树分析

来源 :世界核心医学期刊文摘(心脏病学分册) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:hemir
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Context: Estimation of mortality risk in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure(ADHF) may help clinicians guide care. Objective: To develop a practical user-friendly bedside tool for risk stratification for patients hospitalized with ADHF. Design, Setting, and Patients: The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry(ADHERE) of patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of ADHF in 263 hospitals in the United States was queried with analysis of patient data to develop a risk stratification model. The first 33 046 hospitalizations(derivation cohort; October 2001-February 2003) were analyzed to develop the model and then the validity of the model was prospectively tested using data from 32 229 subsequent hospitalizations(validation cohort; March-July 2003). Patients had a mean age of 72.5 years and 52%were female. Main Outcome Measure: Variables predicting mortality in ADHF. Results: When the derivation and validation cohorts are combined, 37 772(58%) of 65 275 patient-records had coronary artery disease. Of a combined cohort consisting of 52 164 patient-records, 23 910(46%) had preserved left ventricular systolic function. In-hospital mortality was similar in the derivation(4.2%) and validation(4.0%) cohorts. Recursive partitioning of the derivation cohort for 39 variables indicated that the best single predictor for mortality was high admission levels of blood urea nitrogen(≥43 mg/dL [15.35 mmol/L]) followed by low admission systolic blood pressure(< 115 mm Hg) and then by high levels of serum creatinine(≥2.75 mg/dL [243.1 μmol/L]). A simple risk tree identified patient groups with mortality ranging from 2.1%to 21.9%. The odds ratio for mortality between patients identified as high and low risk was 12.9(95%con-fidence interval, 10.4-15.9) and similar results were seen when this risk stratification was applied prospectively to the validation cohort. Conclusions: These results suggest that ADHF patients at low, intermediate, and high risk for in-hospital mortality can be easily identified using vital sign and laboratory data obtained on hospital admission. The ADHERE risk tree provides clinicians with a validated, practical bedside tool for mortality risk stratification. Context: Estimation of mortality risk in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) may help clinicians guide care. Objective: To develop a practical user-friendly bedside tool for risk stratification for patients hospitalized with ADHF. Design, Setting, and Patients: The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) of patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of ADHF in 263 hospitals in the United States was queried with analysis of patient data to develop a risk stratification model. The first 33 046 hospitalizations (derivation cohort; October 2001-February 2003) were analyzed to develop the model and then the validity of the model was prospectively tested using data from 32 229 hospitalizations (validation cohort; March-July 2003). Patients had a mean age of 72.5 years and 52% were female. Main Outcome Measure: Variables predicting mortality in ADHF. Results: When the derivation and validation cohorts are combined, 37 772 (58%) of Of 275 patients-records had coronary artery disease. Of a combined cohort consisting of 52 164 patient-records, 23 910 (46%) had preserved left ventricular systolic function. In-hospital mortality was similar in the derivation (4.2%) and validation (4.0%) cohorts. Recursive partitioning of the derivation cohort for 39 variables indicated that the best single predictor for mortality was high admission levels of blood urea nitrogen (> 43 mg / dL [15.35 mmol / L]) followed by low admission systolic blood A simple risk tree identified patient groups with a mortality ranging from 2.1% to 21.9%. The odds ratio for (<115 mm Hg) and then by high levels of serum creatinine (≥2.75 mg / dL [243.1 μmol / L] mortality between patients identified as high and low risk was 12.9 (95% con-fidence interval, 10.4-15.9) and similar results were seen when this risk stratification was applied prospectively to the validation cohort. Conclusions: These results suggest that ADHF patients at low , intermediate, and h igh risk for in-hospital mortality can be identifiable using vital sign and laboratory data obtained on hospital admission. The ADHERE risk tree provides clinicians with a validated, practical bedside tool for mortality risk stratification.
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