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为探明路侧危险度对安全的具体影响规律,本文做了深入的调研和分析。分析结果表明:路侧危险度和路侧事故率是偏弱的负相关关系,而与全部事故率、碰撞事故率是偏弱的正相关关系;在综合考虑接入口密度、道路线形、交通组成、路侧危险度等因素构建的综合事故预测模型中,路侧危险度只在碰撞事故预测模型中为正向影响系数,在其他模型中为非显著影响。进一步分析发现,路侧危险度对全部事故率的影响是按二次抛物线先降低后持续上升,对碰撞事故率影响是按二次抛物线持续上升,对路侧事故率影响是按二次抛物线持续下降。基于分析结果,确定了路侧危险度事故减少因子,并对路侧危险度对碰撞事故的影响做了细致分析。
In order to find out the law of the concrete influence of roadside danger on safety, this paper did deep research and analysis. The analysis results show that the roadside hazard degree and the roadside accident rate are weaker negative correlations, while the overall accident rates and collision accident rates are weakly positive correlations. When taking into account the density of access points, road alignment, traffic composition , Roadside risk and other factors to build a comprehensive accident prediction model, the roadside risk only in the collision prediction model for the positive impact coefficient, in other models for the non-significant impact. Further analysis shows that the influence of roadside risk on the total accident rate is based on the fact that the quadratic parabola firstly decreases and then increases continuously. The impact on the collision accident rate continues to increase according to the quadratic parabola. The impact on the roadside accident rate is based on the quadratic parabola decline. Based on the analysis results, the reduction factor of roadside danger degree accident is determined, and the impact of roadside hazard degree on collision accident is analyzed in detail.