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以吐鲁番市的三个区县为研究靶区,首先应用耦合模型分别对三个区县的教育-经济-生态环境系统进行现状评价,然后在三个系统中均取一个代表性因子,用Stella模型预测其未来20年的发展情况。结果显示:高昌区协调发展度D值从1993到2013年分别为0.112、0.230、0.320、0.368、0.480;鄯善县的协调发展度D值从1993到2013年分别为:0.044、0.23、0.348、0.392、0.434;托克逊县协调发展度D值从1993到2013年分别为0.172、0.236、0.244、0.398、0.529,可知三个区县的协调发展均呈逐年上升的趋势。从模拟预测的结果来看,第三产业产值的变化最大,其中高昌区最高。而耕地面积和学生数的变化较小或基本保持不变。
Taking the three districts and counties of Turpan as the research target, the coupling model was firstly used to evaluate the present situation of education-economy-environment system in each of the three districts and counties, and then a representative factor was taken in all three systems. The model predicts its development over the next 20 years. The results showed that the D value of coordinated development of Gaochang district was 0.112,0.230,0.320,0.368,0.480 from 1993 to 2013 respectively. The D value of coordination development degree of Shanshan county was 0.044,0.23,0.348 from 1993 to 2013, 0.392 and 0.434, respectively. The value of coordinated development of Toksun County from 1993 to 2013 were 0.172, 0.236, 0.244, 0.398 and 0.529, respectively. It can be seen that the coordinated development of the three districts and counties showed an upward trend year by year. According to the results of the simulation, the output value of the tertiary industry has the largest change, with Gaochang District being the highest. However, the change of cultivated area and number of students is small or almost unchanged.