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中国私募股权投资行业发展迅猛,资金供求关系的逆转导致了诸多问题的产生,其中如何对项目进行准确估值是个焦点难题,私募股权投资机构普遍陷入了估值困境。估值困境产生的表面原因是资金供给量过剩,超过了优质项目对资金的需求量,深层次原因是能够比较准确估值的现金流量贴现法难以被普遍应用,而国内产业竞争结构的不稳定性、企业竞争逻辑的独特性以及企业内部管理层的不确定性,是造成现金流量贴现法不能准确估值的根源。解决中国私募股权投资估值困境的思路有:(1)分析产业所处的竞争阶段以及未来演进趋势,估算行业的总体规模、增长速度和盈利水平,可以消除产业结构不稳定性的影响;(2)分析企业所具备的竞争优势,估算企业未来能够占据的市场份额,可以消除企业竞争逻辑独特性的影响;(3)设计合适的机制,对企业内部管理层加以筛选和屏蔽,可以消除企业内部管理层不确定性的影响。三个方面的解决思路得到了中国实践案例的验证,可以有效修正现金流量贴现法在中国实践应用中的偏差,从而进行比较准确的估值。
The rapid development of China’s private equity investment industry, the reversal of funding supply and demand led to many problems, including how to accurately estimate the project is a key problem, private equity investment institutions generally fall into the valuation difficulties. The apparent reason for the appraisal dilemma is excess supply of funds, which exceeds the demand for funds for high-quality projects. The deeper reason is that the discounted cash flow method, which can be more accurately valued, can not be universally applied, while the domestic industrial competition structure is not stable The uniqueness of the logic of competition and the uncertainty of the internal management of the enterprise are the root causes of the inability to accurately estimate the cash flow discount method. The ideas to solve the valuation plight of private equity investment in China are as follows: (1) Analyzing the stage of competition and future evolution trend of the industry, estimating the overall size, growth rate and profitability of the industry can eliminate the impact of the instability of the industrial structure; 2) Analyze the competitive advantage enterprises have, and estimate the market share that the enterprise can occupy in the future, which can eliminate the influence of the uniqueness of the competitive logic of the enterprise; (3) Design appropriate mechanisms to screen and shield the internal management of the enterprise, The impact of internal management uncertainty. Three solutions to the problem have been verified by China’s practice cases, which can effectively correct the deviation of the cash flow discount method in China’s practice and thus make a more accurate valuation.