论文部分内容阅读
2014年我国开始在东北和内蒙古试行大豆目标价格政策,2016年是目标价格政策实行的第三年,也是政策效果的检验评估年,本文利用GARCH族模型对改革试点前后大豆价格的波动情况进行实证研究,检验大豆目标价格实行前后大豆市场价格波动差异情况。实证结果表明:大豆目标价格政策的实行有效减少了大豆价格波动的集簇性、不对称性,并消除了大豆市场的ARCH效应,稳定了我国大豆市场,有利于大豆价格逐渐回归市场定价。
In 2014, China experimented with soybean target price policy in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia. 2016 is the third year in which the target price policy is implemented and is also the test and evaluation year of policy effect. This paper uses GARCH model to test the fluctuation of soybean price before and after the reform pilot Study, test soybean target price before and after the implementation of soybean market price fluctuations. The empirical results show that the implementation of the soybean target price policy effectively reduces the clustering and asymmetry of soybean price volatility, and eliminates the ARCH effect in the soybean market, stabilizes the soybean market in our country, and helps to gradually return the soybean price to the market pricing.