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研究利用来自于黄渤海渔政局的内部统计资料,采用基于Bayes方法的Pella-Tomlinson模型对渤海渔业资源动态进行了科学评析,评析结果显示:渤海渔业资源的环境容纳量为3.5×106～5.5×106t;渔业资源综合种群的内禀增长率r为0.9～1.6;1979年渔业资源年平均生物量为2 332 523 t,尔后持续上升到1985年的最高值4 251 292 t,1985年以后又持续下降到2002年的最低值2 250 709 t;渤海渔业资源的最大持续产量MSY约为140×104t左右;支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量约为817 771 kW,到1991年捕捞努力量增加到963 564 kW,此时已超过获得MSY时需要的捕捞努力量,即从1991年开始出现捕捞过度。
Based on the internal statistical data from Huangbohai Fishery Bureau and the Pella-Tomlinson model based on Bayes method, the dynamic assessment of fishery resources in the Bohai Sea was conducted. The results showed that the environmental capacity of the fishery resources in the Bohai Sea was 3.5 × 106 ~ 5.5 × 106t. The intrinsic rate of increase r of the comprehensive population of fishery resources is 0.9-1.6. The average annual biomass of fishery resources in 1979 was 2 332 523 t and then continued to rise to the highest value of 4 251 292 t in 1985. Since 1985, Continued to decline to a minimum of 2 250 709 t in 2002; the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of the fishery resources in the Bohai Sea was about 140 × 10 4 t; the fishing effort needed to support MSY was 817 771 kW, and fishing effort increased to 963 564 kW, at which time the amount of fishing effort required to acquire MSY has been exceeded, ie overfishing occurred since 1991.