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石油是一种特殊的具有战略意义的“政治”商品,极易受到政治、经济、军事等因素的影响。根据石油安全的内涵和特征,遵循指标体系构建原则,本文把影响石油安全的主要因素归纳为资源因素、政治因素、经济因素、运输因素、军事因素等5个方面,并从中选择16个指标,构建了评估国家石油安全的指标体系,并给出了每个指标的表达式。在对指标分级和量化的基础上,利用层次分析法,结合熵技术对指标权重进行修正。通过研究,可以得到以下几点启示:①石油安全定量评估是一个较复杂的问题,指标的选取、指标值的计算和权重系数的确定都需要研究者自身的判断,因此,研究者对研究领域有一个较全面的了解和掌握,才能构建较为科学合理的指标体系;②研究中有一些重要的指标难以完全量化,为了研究工作的需要,我们将这类指标转化为半定量化指标;③采用熵技术对权重系数进行修正,其结果令人满意。
Oil is a special kind of “political” commodity of strategic importance that is highly vulnerable to political, economic, military and other factors. According to the connotation and characteristics of oil security and following the principle of index system construction, this paper summarizes the main factors that affect oil security into five aspects: resource, politics, economy, transportation and military, and selects 16 indicators from them. The index system of assessing national oil security is constructed and the expression of each indicator is given. Based on the grading and quantification of indicators, AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy technique are used to correct the weights of indicators. Through the research, we can get the following enlightenment: (1) Quantitative assessment of oil security is a complex issue. The selection of indicators, the calculation of index values and the determination of weight coefficients all need the judgment of researchers themselves. Therefore, There is a more comprehensive understanding and mastery in order to build a more scientific and rational index system; ② some of the important indicators in the study is difficult to quantify completely, in order to study the work needs, we will transform such indicators into semi-quantitative indicators; ③ adoption Entropy technology to correct the weight coefficient, the result is satisfactory.