研究金砖国家的经济周期是否具有同步性,不仅有利于观察金砖五国的趋同性,而且有利于五国未来利用金砖国家这个平台进行政策协调。采用共同趋势和共同周期的计量经济学研究方法进行验证,结果表明金转国家的经济周期在长期内有共同趋势。未来金砖国家可以在五国内部先行建立自贸区,进一步强化彼此间的经贸交流和金融合作,真正发挥金砖国家的合作与协调机制。 Studying whether the economic cycle of the BRICs is in synchronicity not only helps to observe the convergence of the BRICs, but also helps the five countries to make use of the BRICS platform for policy coordination in the future. Using common trends and common cycle econometrics research methods to verify the results show that the gold-to-turn countries have a common long-term economic cycle. In the future, the BRICS countries can set up a free trade zone within the five countries to further strengthen their economic and trade exchanges and financial cooperation and truly exert the cooperation and coordination mechanism of the BRIC countries.