香港前途问题早已成为各方关注的热点;80年代以来,关于香港经济发展前景的讨论更是日趋深入,迄今已经发表了数量可观的文章和论文,提出了不少颇有见地的观点。本文从长期趋势分析与短期特征考察相结合的角度,提供一种新的看法。这种看法乃基于如下的认识:对当前香港经济的观察,必须在认清了香港经济发展的长期走向之后进行才具有现实意义,而过渡时期同时作为经济上的过渡时 The question of the future of Hong Kong has long been the focus of attention of all parties. Since the 1980s, the discussion on the prospects for the economic development of Hong Kong has deepened. So far, a great number of articles and papers have been published and quite a few insightful views have been put forward. This article provides a new perspective from the perspective of the combination of long-term trend analysis and short-term characteristics. This view is based on the recognition that the observation of the present Hong Kong economy must be realistic only after it has made clear the long-term trend of Hong Kong’s economic development. In the meantime, the transitional period also serves as an economic transition