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实现2030年碳峰值是中国政府向全世界做出的负责任承诺,而达峰前碳排放空间分配是实现该承诺的必要条件。在对全球主要国家的部门碳排放数据系统聚类基础上,研究构建了一个融合国家、部门和省区的碳配额分配模型,以此评价未来省区部门的碳排放空间及其配额分配模式偏好的差异。研究结果表明:(1)未来中国可选择的部门碳排放目标模式有美国模式、欧盟模式和中国模式;(2)与传统碳的配额分配流程相比,基于目标模式的改进流程可减少省区部门碳配额分配结果的不确定性,且更具有动态性和前瞻性;(3)不同目标模式下,省区部门碳配额分配结果差距较大。就北京市而言,美国模式和欧盟模式下运输部门所得配额远大于制造业和建筑业部门,而中国模式下恰好相反。从目标模式偏好程度来看,北京市最偏好欧盟模式。
Achieving the 2030 carbon peak is a responsible undertaking made by the Chinese government to the world, and the pre-peak carbon emission allocation is a necessary condition for this commitment. Based on a systematic clustering of sectoral carbon emission data of major countries in the world, a carbon allocation allocation model based on the integration of national, sectoral and provincial regions was constructed to evaluate the future carbon sequestration space and its quota allocation preference The difference. The results show that: (1) In the future, the target models of carbon sequestration in selected sectors in China are the U.S. model, EU model and China model; (2) Compared with the allocation process of traditional carbon quotas, the target-based improvement process can reduce the provincial- (3) Under different target models, the results of carbon quotas allocation in different provinces and municipalities are quite different. In the case of Beijing, quotas from the transport sector under the US model and the EU model are far greater than those in the manufacturing and construction sectors, while the opposite is true in China. From the degree of preference of the target model, Beijing prefers the EU model.