本文通过建立误差修正模型,分析了世界园艺产品的进口价格波动对我国园艺产品出口的短期和长期影响。实证结果表明:进口价格的长期弹性远比短期弹性显著,短期进口价格波动产生的效应对我国园艺产品出口影响不大。长期来看,进口价格呈上扬趋势,我国园艺产品出口将呈现增长的势头。 In this paper, the error correction model is established to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of the fluctuation of import prices of horticultural products on the export of horticultural products in China. The empirical results show that the long-term elasticity of import prices is far more significant than short-term elasticity, and the effect of short-term import price fluctuations has little effect on the export of horticultural products in China. In the long run, the import price will go up, and the export of horticultural products in China will show an increasing momentum.