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阳江高本底地区恶性肿瘤调查始于1972年,目的在于探索该天然放射性高本底辐射连续照射对人群恶性肿瘤死亡率的影响,为小剂量电离辐射致癌危害概率估计和预测提供对人类的直接观察资料。方法本阶段采用定群队列观察恶性肿瘤死亡资料收集分人口学调查和死因确认两步骤。相对危险(RR)的计算,应用Epicure(HirosoftInternationalCorp1988~1992)中AMFIT程序。结果该定群队列高本底地区高、中、低三个剂量组和选自对照地区的对照组共106517人。1987~1990年累积观察了421640人年,期间恶性肿瘤死亡231例。各剂量组与对照组比较经性别、年龄组调整的RR,对全部恶性肿瘤和全部实体癌,除低剂量组外,RR均<1。就部位别肿瘤而论,所分析肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、鼻咽癌和白血病中,除鼻咽癌各组和白血病高剂量组外,其他RR均<1。但所述各RR的90%置信区间较宽,且绝大部分无统计显著性。与以往研究合并资料(1979~1990)分析,也得到类似的结果。结论综观本阶段研究资料初步分析,可看到高本底地区恶性肿瘤死亡率低于对照的趋势。这重复了以往研究(1986年前动态队列研究)的结果。但要得出有统计学意义?
The investigation of malignant tumors in the high background area of Yangjiang began in 1972. The purpose was to explore the effect of continuous irradiation of high background radiation of natural radiation on the mortality rate of malignant tumors in humans, and to provide direct estimates of the probability of carcinogenic hazards and predictions of low-level ionizing radiation to humans. Observation data. Methods At this stage, a cohort of cohorts was used to observe the collection of death data of malignant tumors and the demographic investigation and confirmation of cause of death were two steps. The calculation of relative risk (RR) uses the AMFIT program in Epicure (Hirosoft International Corp. 1988~1992). Results A total of 106,517 people in the high-, mid-, and low-dose group and the control group from the control group were found in the high background area of this cohort. From 1987 to 1990, a cumulative observation period of 421,640 person-years occurred during which 231 cases of malignant tumors died. The RR adjusted by sex and age group was compared between each dose group and the control group. For all malignant tumors and all solid cancers, except for the low dose group, the RR was <1. In terms of site-specific tumors, the analysis of lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer, and leukemia, except for nasopharyngeal cancer and high dose of leukemia, all other RRs were <1. However, the 90% confidence intervals for the RRs are relatively wide, and most of them are not statistically significant. Similar results have been obtained with the analysis of previous studies (1979-1990). Conclusion According to the preliminary analysis of the research data at this stage, it can be seen that the mortality of malignant tumors in the high background area is lower than that of the control. This repeats the results of previous studies (dynamic cohort study before 1986). But must be statistically significant?