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一、引言 2000年11月14日,在中国大陆昆仑山口西(36.2°N,90.9°E)发生了M_S8.1地震。这是建国以来,继1950年察隅M_S8.6地震后中国大陆发生的最大地震。虽然震中附近人烟稀少,人、畜、财产损失有限,但其威力和影响是十分引人注目的。因此,科学地分析、研究这次地震的前兆异常,并在此基础上客观地评估中国大陆西部未来地震趋势,已成为地震学者必须认真考虑和极待回答的问题。对此,本文据有关地震活动、钻孔应力、应变资料,对2001年11月14日昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震部分前兆异常与中国大陆西部未来地震趋势进行了初步分析和讨论。
I. Introduction On November 14, 2000, an M_S8.1 earthquake occurred in the west of the Kunlun Mountain Pass in mainland China (36.2 ° N, 90.9 ° E). This is the largest earthquake in Mainland China since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in the 1950s following the Zayu M_S8.6 earthquake in 1950. Although the population near the epicenter is sparsely populated, the loss of people, livestock and property is limited, but its power and influence are very noticeable. Therefore, scientifically analyzing and studying the precursory anomalies of the earthquake and objectively assessing future earthquakes in the west of China on this basis has become a problem that seismologists must seriously consider and urgently answer. In this paper, based on the seismic activity, borehole stress and strain data, a preliminary analysis and discussion are made on the precursory anomaly of the M_S8.1 earthquake west of the Kunlun Mountain Pass on November 14, 2001 and the future earthquake trend in the western part of China.