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以1986.1-2009.9WTI原油期货周平均价格,共1239个事件期作为研究对象,采用Hilbert-Huang变换的方法构造石油价格波动预警分量,以此来对历次石油价格波动过程展开预警分级研究.在综合考虑石油价格的波动周期、波动幅度和波动出现概率的基础上,计算预警信号的强度,并将所有预警信号分为三级:轻度预警信号、中度预警信号、高度预警信号.研究结果表明,该预警分级机制给出的预警信号与已经发生的石油价格波动过程吻合,因此借助此预警分级机制,对未来可能出现的石油价格危机给出的预警提示,具有良好的前瞻性.
Taking the average weekly price of WTI crude oil futures from January 1986 to September 2009 for a total of 1239 events as the research object, this paper uses Hilbert-Huang transform method to construct the oil price volatility warning component, in order to prewarning the fluctuation process of previous oil prices, Based on the fluctuation period, fluctuation range and probability of fluctuation of oil price, the strength of early warning signal is calculated, and all early warning signals are divided into three levels: mild early warning signal, moderate early warning signal and high early warning signal.The results show that . The early warning signal given by the early warning classification mechanism is consistent with the oil price volatility process that has already taken place. Therefore, with this early warning classification mechanism, there is a good foresight perspective on early-warning prompts that may arise in the future oil price crisis.