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贸易政策在“二元经济”的问题中有着特殊的地位,它既可能引发二元经济,也能够有助于解决二元经济。我国仍处在经济转型的重要时期,二元经济问题较为显著;随着WTO过渡期的结束与全球经济一体化进程的加快,我国需要寻求新的发展模式,走出二元经济。本文采用实证的分析方法,主要通过VAR分析和脉冲响应分析,重点讨论我国自改革开放以来对外经贸对二元经济转换的影响情况,从而分析在解决二元经济问题上的贸易政策选择。
Trade policy has a special status in the issue of “dual economy”, which can both trigger a dual economy as well as a solution to the dual economy. China is still in an important period of economic restructuring and the dual economic problems are more obvious. With the end of the transitional period of WTO and the acceleration of global economic integration, our country needs to find a new mode of development and get out of the dual economy. Empirical analysis method is adopted in this paper, mainly through VAR analysis and impulse response analysis. The paper mainly discusses the impact of foreign trade and economic cooperation on the dual economic transition in our country since the reform and opening up, and analyzes the choice of trade policy in solving dual economic problems.