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目的探讨自回归求和移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)在手足口病疫情预测预警中的应用,验证分析模型的可行性与适用性。方法利用安徽阜阳市2009-2013年手足口病发病资料,拟合ARIMA模型,对阜阳市2014年1~3月各月发病情况进行预测评价。结果建立ARIMA(1,2,0)(0,1,0)12模型,预测结果基本符合实际发病变动趋势,验证了该模型的可用性。结论 ARIMA模型可用于模拟手足口病发病在时间序列上的变化趋势,进行短期预测。
Objective To investigate the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in the prediction and early warning of HFMD epidemic and to verify the feasibility and applicability of the model. Methods The incidence of HFMD in 2009-2013 in Fuyang City, Anhui Province was used to fit the ARIMA model. The incidence of each disease in Fuyang from January to March of 2014 was estimated and evaluated. Results The model of ARIMA (1,2,0) (0,1,0) 12 was established. The prediction results were basically consistent with the trend of actual incidence and the availability of the model was verified. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to simulate the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in time series and make short-term prediction.