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为研究尾矿库溃坝风险的演化过程,有效预防溃坝事故,从生命周期视角,运用系统动力学(SD)理论建立尾矿库勘察设计、建造以及运行阶段的溃坝风险流图;结合尾矿库案例进行应用分析,揭示该尾矿库生命周期溃坝风险的动态演化特征;并探讨企业风险预警值、风险投入方案对尾矿库溃坝风险水平的影响。研究表明:随着时间的推移,尾矿库总体溃坝风险不断增加;勘察设计阶段,风险量在第40~55个月之间线性增长,风险速率变化曲线呈抛物线型;建造阶段,溃坝风险量出现台阶式的增长;运行阶段溃坝风险量波浪式上升,并在第60月达到最大值;企业风险预警值的改变对尾矿库溃坝风险水平预测有显著影响;勘察设计阶段增加风险管理投入,有助于降低和控制尾矿库溃坝风险。
In order to study the evolution process of tailings dam dam failure and effectively prevent the dam failure, from the life cycle perspective, the system of flow dynamics (SD) theory is used to establish the flow chart of the dam failure risk survey in the design, construction and operation of the tailings dam. The application of the tailings dam case is analyzed to reveal the dynamic evolution characteristics of the dam-break risk during the life cycle of the tailings dam. The influence of the risk pre-warning value and the venture capital scheme on the dam failure risk of the tailings dam is also discussed. The research shows that the risk of the dam failure increases with the passage of time. During the investigation and design phase, the risk increases linearly between the 40th and 55th months, and the curve of the risk rate shows a parabolic curve. During the construction phase, The amount of risk of dam breaching increased during the operation phase and reached the maximum in the 60th month; the change of the enterprise risk warning value had a significant impact on the prediction of the dam-break risk level of the tailings dam; the survey and design phase increased Investment in risk management helps to reduce and control the risk of damming tailings dam.