目的:分析我国孕产妇死亡率的时间和空间变化趋势，对孕产妇死亡率的未来情况进行预测。方法:以1991至2018年全国孕产妇死亡率和2009至2018年我国各省市孕产妇死亡率为研究对象，运用统计描述分析方法对孕产妇死亡的时间及空间的变化进行分析，采用ARIMA（即自回归移动平均模型）时间序列模型对全国、农村和城市孕产妇死亡率的未来情况进行预测。结果:在孕产妇死亡时空分布方面：1991年我国孕产妇死亡率为80.0/10万，到2018年我国孕产妇死亡率为18.3/10万，比1991年降低77.1%，年平均增长率为-5.3%；2009年西藏孕产妇死亡率最高，为232.2/10万，江苏孕产妇死亡率最低，为5.2/10万，两者相差44.7倍，经过9年的发展，西藏依然为全国孕产妇死亡率最高的省份，为56.5/10万，上海孕产妇死亡率最低，为1.4/10万，两者相差40.4倍；1991年，农村和城市孕产妇死亡率分别为46.3/10万和100.0/10万，城市与农村死亡比为1∶2.16，到2022年，我国城乡死亡率之比为1∶0.95。孕产妇死亡率的预测：2022年全国孕产妇死亡率是10.1/10万，城市孕产妇死亡率的预测值是16.0/10万，农村孕产妇死亡率的预测值是15.0/10万。结论:我国孕产妇死亡率大幅降低，城乡之间孕产妇死亡率的差距由1991年的53.7/10万下降至2022年的0.7/10万，呈下降趋势。但是从模型预测结果来看，城市孕产妇的死亡率出现轻微反弹现象，农村孕产妇死亡率则保持平稳状态。“,”Objective:To analyze the temporal and spatial trends of maternal mortality in China, and to predict the future situation of maternal mortality.Methods:Taking the national maternal mortality rate in 1991-2018 and the maternal mortality rate in 2009-2018 in various provinces and cities of China as the research objects, using the statistical description analysis method to analyze the changes of time and space of maternal mortality, and using ARIMA time series model to predict the future situation of maternal mortality in China, rural areas and cities.Results:Regarding to the spatial and temporal distribution of maternal mortality, the maternal mortality rate in China generally showed a certain decline trend. In 1991, the maternal mortality rate was 80.0/100 000, and in 2018, China′s maternal mortality rate was 18.3/100 000, 77.1% lower than that in 1991, with an average annual growth rate of-5.3%; In 2009, Tibet′s maternal mortality rate was the highest, 232.2/100 000, and Jiangsu′s maternal mortality rate was the lowest, 5.2/100 000, with a difference of 44.7times After nine years of development, Tibet is still the province with the highest maternal mortality rate in China, which is 56.5/100 000, while Shanghai has the lowest maternal mortality rate, which is 1.4/100 000, with a difference of 40.4times. In 1991, the rural and urban maternal mortality rates were 46.3/100, 000 and 100.0/100, 000, respectively, and the urban-rural mortality rate was 1∶2.16. By 2022, the urban-rural mortality rate in China was 1∶0.95. Regarding the prediction of maternal mortality for the future, the national maternal mortality rate in 2022 is 10.1/100 000, the urban maternal mortality rate is 16.0/100 000, and the rural maternal mortality rate is 15.0/100 000.Conclusion:The maternal mortality rate in China has been greatly reduced, and the gap between urban and rural areas has decreased from 53.7/100 000 in 1991 to 0.7/100 000 in 2022, showing a downward trend. However, from the model prediction results, there is a slight rebound in the urban maternal mortality rate, while the rural maternal mortality rate remains stable, which suggests that the government and the health administration should pay more attention to the growing trend of urban maternal mortality while taking reasonable measures to reduce the rural maternal mortality rate, so as to avoid the rebound of urban maternal mortality rate.