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根据塔里木河流域近50a来的水文、经济资料,运用数理统计方法分析了自然驱动因子和人文驱动因子对塔里木河流域水域环境影响的贡献率。结果显示:塔里木河四源流在过去50a出山口径流量没有减少,但汇入塔里木河干流的水量从20世纪50年代的50.27亿m3减少到2000年以后的46.05亿m3,并且出现干流断流长度增加、地下水位下降、水质矿化度升高等一系列问题。而导致这种恶化的直接原因是人类活动的干扰,如:耕地面积扩大,不合理的灌溉、垦殖、放牧等。因此,今后塔里木河流域在水资源利用和综合治理中,应特别关注人类活动的影响。
Based on the hydrological and economic data from the Tarim River basin in recent 50 years, the contribution rate of natural and human factors to the water environment in the Tarim River Basin was analyzed by using mathematical statistics. The results show that the runoff of the four source streams in the Tarim River has not decreased in the past 50 years, but the water flow into the mainstream of the Tarim River decreased from 5.027 billion m3 in the 1950s to 4.605 billion m3 after 2000, , Groundwater level decline, the water quality of mineralization and a series of problems. The direct cause of this deterioration is the disturbance of human activities such as the expansion of arable land, irrational irrigation, cultivation and grazing. Therefore, in the future, the Tarim River Basin should pay special attention to the impacts of human activities in water resources utilization and integrated management.