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自公元前1177年开始的中国地震目录经Allen等人修订,揭示了地震活动的周期性.本文用公元1350—1949年的地震目录分析了破坏性地震发生的概率,检验了用于预测破坏性地震概率的地震活动性平稳模型的准确性.中国地震资料本文所研究的中国北部五省及其邻近省份(北纬29.5°—44°,东经104°—125°)的1230条地震记录记载了公元前1177年至公元1949年期间所发生的地震.其震中位置如图1所示,根据震级将其分为四类.较早年代发生的地震,特别是较小的地震,记载不完整,所以只使用了1350年以后烈度≥Ⅶ的地震资料.
The Chinese earthquake catalog, which began in 1177 BC, was revised by Allen et al to reveal the periodicity of the seismic activity.This paper analyzes the probability of a destructive earthquake with the catalog of earthquakes in the year 1350-1949 and tests the predictions of the destructiveness Seismological Probability of Seismically Active Stationary Model Accuracy of China Seismological Data The 1230 seismograms recorded in this study from five provinces in northern China and their neighboring provinces (latitude 29.5 ° -44 °, longitude 104 ° -125 ° longitude) The earthquakes that took place between 1177 and 1949 were classified according to their magnitude as shown in Figure 1. The epicenters were classified into four categories according to their magnitudes, and the earthquakes in the earlier years, especially the smaller earthquakes, were not fully documented Only the seismic data with intensity ≥ VII after 1350 have been used.