引言农作物的生长、发育和形成产量,是一个有机物质的累积过程,它是在一个随时间变化的农业气象生态环境中逐步实现的。因此,对农作物产量形成的整个过程,可在一定程度上通过农业气象要素的变化,实现动态的监测。换言之,可以在农作物生长发育的不同时刻(对应着不同时效),通过已出现的农业气象条件,对产量前景(即潜在产量),提出不同精度的予测。不同时效的产量予报,可以通过组建多组相应的回归方程来实现,但这些方程组之间基本上是独立的,予报的结果也没有什么 Introduction The growth, development and yield formation of crops are a cumulative process of organic matter that is progressively achieved in an agro-meteorological environment that changes over time. Therefore, the whole process of crop yield formation can be dynamically monitored through the changes of agrometeorological factors to a certain extent. In other words, it is possible to predict the yield prospects (that is, potential yields) with different precision at different times (corresponding to different ages) of crop growth and development through the already occurring agrometeorological conditions. The production of different aging to be reported, can be set up by multiple sets of corresponding regression equation to achieve, but these equations are essentially independent, the reported results are nothing