论文部分内容阅读
运用非线性科学的理论和方法,提出了一整套地质灾害预测预报的理论和方法,包括探索地质灾害发生前兆的加卸载响应比方法、地质灾害发生时间预测的协同学模型以及地质灾害区域预测评价的神经网络方法,并建立了基于GIS的地质灾害区域评价系统。同时,通过对向家坝水电站库区的崩滑地质灾害的统计分析,提出了地质灾害发生规模与发生频率间的幂律规则。
This paper presents a set of theory and method of predicting and forecasting geological disasters by using the theory and method of non-linear science, including the method of unloading and loading response to explore precursors of geological disasters, the synergetic model of predicting the time of occurrence of geological disasters and the prediction and evaluation of geological disasters area Neural network method, and established a GIS-based geological disaster area evaluation system. At the same time, by the statistical analysis of the landslide-prone geological disasters in Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station, the power law rules between the occurrence scale and the occurrence frequency of geological disasters are proposed.