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针对坦克分队火力部署手段匮乏、科学性不足的问题,通过对火力部署方式和内容的分析,建立了一种基于排队论的作战效能预测模型。首先,对坦克分队作战过程进行了基本假设并提出了预测模型结构;其次,建立了预测模型的状态转移图和稳态平衡方程;再次,得到了2个概率值G_j(1)和P_(0,j)的求解方法;最后,推导了预测模型中关键概率值PM的求解方法。通过讨论多种情况下作战效能预测指标PT与模型参数的关系,证明了该模型可以预测一定战场态势下不同火力部署方式的作战效能,分队指挥员可以将预测结果作为火力部署的重要依据,从而实现基于作战效能预测的火力部署。
In view of the lack of means of firepower deployment and scientificalness of firepower deployment in tank units, a combat effectiveness prediction model based on queuing theory is established through the analysis of firepower deployment methods and contents. First of all, the basic assumptions and the structure of the predictive model for the operation of the tank detachment are proposed. Secondly, state transition diagrams and steady-state equilibrium equations of the predictive model are established. Then, two probability values G_j (1) and P_ , j); Finally, the method of solving the critical probability value PM in the prediction model is deduced. By discussing the relationship between PT and model parameters under various conditions, it is proved that the model can predict the operational effectiveness of different firepower deployment methods under certain battlefield situations. The unit commander can use the prediction results as an important basis for firepower deployment and thus Realization of firepower deployment based on operational effectiveness forecast.