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2004年第一季度,全球经济沿袭2003年下半年以来的良好复苏势头,进入新一轮更为稳定的复苏。其主要特点:一是总体经济复苏更为有力,大部分国家和地区的经济进入稳定增长;二是在三大经济体中,美国在带动全球经济复苏中扮演重要角色,欧元区的经济复苏缓慢,日本经济复苏形势不断好转;三是其他亚洲国家和地区的经济增长速度普遍高于世界其他地区。IMF近期将世界经济增长的预期从4.1%调高至4.6%。■美国经济复苏基础加固,继续充当全球经济增长的火车头一季度,美国经济运行良好,主要表现:一是供需两旺。2004年前3个月的巧ISM,(供应管理协会)制造业指数分别为63.6、61.4 、62.5,已连续5个月超过60,表示美国制造业正持续扩张。而商品零售额从1月略降0.003%后转为加速增长,3月份美国商品零售额经季节性调整后为3330.1亿美元,环比增长1.8%,创下去年3月以来的最大增幅。二是减税计划对刺激个人收入和消费支出的增长起到明显效果。在政府削减个人所得税和
In the first quarter of 2004, the global economy continued its good momentum of recovery since the second half of 2003 and entered a new round of more stable recovery. Its main features are as follows: First, the overall economic recovery is more robust; the economy of most countries and regions has entered a steady growth; secondly, among the three major economies, the United States has played an important role in driving the global economic recovery and the economic recovery in the Euro area has been slow The situation of Japan’s economic recovery is getting better; thirdly, the economic growth rate of other Asian countries and regions is generally higher than that of the rest of the world. The IMF recently revised its forecast for world economic growth from 4.1% to 4.6%. ■ U.S. Economic Recovery Basically Reinforced and Continued Role as a Locomotive for Global Economic Growth In the first quarter, the U.S. economy is in good condition with the following main performances: First, supply and demand are booming. For the first three months of 2004, the QoQ ISM (Supply Management Association) manufacturing index was 63.6, 61.4, 62.5, respectively, which exceeded 60 for five consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry in the United States is continuing to expand. Retail sales of merchandise rose slightly from 0.003% in January to accelerated growth. Retail sales in the United States rose 330% to 330.31 billion U.S. dollars in March, the largest increase since March last year, up 1.8% from the previous month. Second, the tax relief plan has a significant effect on stimulating the growth of personal income and consumer spending. In the government cut personal income tax and