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秦淮河流域汛期雨量丰沛,洪水特性受一日降雨量和多日降雨量影响,单考虑某一时段的降雨量不能全面反映流域洪灾的风险。选取P-Ⅲ型分布分别作为最大1日面雨量的边际分布,两参数对数正态分布作为最大3日面雨量、最大7日面雨量边际分布。在此基础上利用Gumbel Copula函数建立秦淮河流域最大1日面雨量、最大3日面雨量联合分布模型,利用Clayton Copula函数建立最大1日面雨量、最大7日面雨量联合分布模型,并计算了二维联合分布下的暴雨设计值和重现期。结果表明,两变量联合重现期小于同现重现期,基于二维Copula函数联合分布计算的暴雨设计值大于单变量分布计算的暴雨设计值,为秦淮河流域的防洪防涝提供了参考。
The rainfall in the Qinhuai River Basin during flood season is abundant. The flood characteristics are affected by the daily rainfall and the multi-day rainfall. The rainfall in a certain period can not fully reflect the flood risk in the basin. P-Ⅲ type distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of maximum daily rainfall. The logarithm normal distribution of two parameters was taken as the maximum 3-day surface rainfall and the maximum 7-day surface rainfall distribution. On this basis, the Gumbel Copula function was used to establish the joint model of maximum 1 day surface rainfall and maximum 3 day surface rainfall in Qinhuai River basin. The maximum daily surface rainfall of 1 day and the maximum surface air surface area of 7 days were calculated by Clayton Copula function. Rainstorm Design Value and Reproduction Period under Two - dimensional Joint Distribution. The results show that the combined recurrence of the two variables is less than the co-occurrence period, and the storm storm design value based on the joint distribution of two-dimensional Copula function is larger than the storm storm design value calculated by the univariate distribution, which provides a reference for flood control and flood control in the Qinhuai River Basin.