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一、泡沫经济的概念及其研究近况 泡沫经济早在17世纪就已经发生过。如17世纪30年代由荷兰东印度公司引发的“郁金香大惨败”,1720年的南海泡沫公司事件及第一次世界大战后席卷美国的股市危机。但是,一直到1987年10月19日从纽约证券交易所爆发的被称为黑色星期一的股价暴跌,泡沫经济问题才成为经济学进行实证研究的一个新领域。 1.泡沫经济的分类 经济学家中的大部分人都认为存在着合理泡沫经济和非合理泡沫经济两种类型。前者是指以经济为主体的合理行动和市场有效性为前提的泡沫经济。合理性的泡沫经济用数学模型容易表达,也是经济学的一个专门理论分析对象。后者在定式化泡沫经济中不满足严密的条件,即使是一部分投资者的行动不合理,也不能得到整体一致的结论。笔者也基本赞同这一分类方法,但在后文的分析中将以合理化泡沫经济模型为主要分析工具,只有如此才能真正检测出日本经济中到底存在多少泡沫,尤其是那些“气体”充填过多的泡沫。
First, the concept of the bubble economy and its research status The bubble economy as early as the 17th century has occurred. Such as the “tulip fiasco” triggered by the Dutch East India Company in the 1730s, the South Sea Bubble Company Incident of 1720, and the stock market crisis sweeping the United States after the First World War. However, until the stock price plunged on the New York Stock Exchange on October 19, 1987, called Black Monday, plummeted, the bubble economy became a new area of empirical research in economics. 1. The classification of the bubble economy Most economists think there are two types of rational and non-rational bubble economy. The former refers to a bubble economy based on the rational actions of the economy and market efficiency. The rational bubble economy is easily expressed by a mathematical model and is also a special theoretical analysis object of economics. The latter does not meet the stringent conditions in the formalized bubble economy. Even if some of the investors did not act reasonably, they could not reach a consensus on the whole. The author also basically agrees with this classification method, but in the following analysis will use the rationalization of the bubble economy model as the main analysis tool, the only way to really detect how much the Japanese economy, the number of bubbles, especially those who “gas” too much Bubble.