深圳市近期经济形势分析及对策研究

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一、目前深圳市经济运行的基本态势 今年以来,国家六大改革措施同时出台,加之宏观经济环境趋紧,涉及和影响社会经济的方方面面。从深圳市第一季度经济形势看,经济运作情况良好,各方面改革稳步推进,运转顺利,各项主要经济指标均有不同程度的增长,可以说经济发展的势头是比较好的。但由于全国宏观经济环境特别是紧缩银根的影响,加之当前经济运行中的深层次矛盾尚未得到根本解决,深圳市经济发展仍存在一些突出的矛盾和亟待解决的问题。 (一)工业产值保持适度增长,但增幅有所回落,部分企业经营困难,盈利水平有所下降。 (二)市场销售旺盛,人民生活水平提高,但物价居高不下。 从趋势看,价格涨幅峰顶尚未出现,物价形势令人担忧。 (三)财政收入保持稳定增长势头,为深入推行分税制改革奠定了基础,但收入增幅逐月回落,财政支出势头迅经,财政平衡难度加大。 (四)金融运作基本正常,但资金仍趋紧张。 虽然近期金融整体形势有所好转,但资金形势不容乐观。由于存款不稳定,信贷资金来源不足,而资金需求依然旺盛,许多企业反映资金紧张,贷款较难,固定资产贷款缺口较大,30个重点工程项目资金都难以保证,部分企业的流动资金贷款也难以落实。造成深圳市资金紧张的原因是多方面的,既有全国大经济环境的宏观 I. Current Basic Situation of Economic Operation in Shenzhen Since the beginning of this year, the six national reform measures have been promulgated at the same time. In addition, the macro-economic environment has become tighter and involves and affects all aspects of social economy. Judging from the economic situation in the first quarter of Shenzhen City, the economy is in good condition. Steady progress has been made in all aspects of reform and the operation has been smooth. The major economic indicators have shown varying degrees of growth. It can be said that the momentum of economic development is relatively good. However, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment in the country, especially the tight monetary policy, and the deep-seated contradictions in the current economic operation, these problems have not yet been fundamentally solved. There are still some outstanding contradictions and problems to be solved in the economic development in Shenzhen. (I) The industrial output maintained a modest increase, but the growth rate dropped slightly. Some enterprises experienced difficulties in operation and the profitability declined. (II) Strong market sales and improvement of living standards for the people, but prices are still high. From the trend of view, the peak price increases have not yet appeared, the price situation is worrying. (C) Fiscal revenue maintained a steady growth momentum, laying the foundation for the further implementation of the reform of the tax-sharing system. However, the increase in income dropped month by month, and the expenditure of the financial sector grew rapidly and the financial balance was more difficult. (D) The financial operation is basically normal, but funds are still tense. Although the overall financial situation has improved recently, the financial situation is not optimistic. Due to the instability of deposits, inadequate source of credit funds and the still strong demand for funds, many enterprises reflect the tight capital, loans are more difficult, and the gaps in loans for fixed assets are relatively large. It is difficult to guarantee the funds for 30 key projects. Some enterprises’ working capital loans Difficult to implement. The reasons for the tight capital in Shenzhen are many. Both the national macro-economic environment
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