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将Gunbel-logistic模型和Gumbel-mixed模型进行了对比,并解析了不同组合情形下的洪水频率结果。研究表明:当输入的二元变量的相关性不大于2/3时,两模型计算出的重现期值差异不大,当输入的二元变量的相关性大于2/3时,两模型计算出的重现期值存在较大的差异,这是由于此时Gumbel-mixed模型已经失效的缘故,因此Gunbel-logistic模型的应用范围较Gunbel-mixed模型更宽。就Gunbel-logistic模型而言,对不同洪水特征量的组合情形得到的重现期差异较大,所得重现期差异幅度达800年。可见,二元变量的洪水频率计算,模型的选择和洪水特征量组合情形的选取是决定洪水频率结果的主要影响因素。
The Gunbel-logistic model and Gumbel-mixed model are compared and the flood frequency results under different combinations are analyzed. The results show that when the correlation between two input variables is not more than 2/3, the difference between the two models is not significant. When the correlation of input binary variables is more than 2/3, the two models calculate Since the Gumbel-mixed model has failed at this time, the Gunbel-logistic model has a wider range of applications than the Gunbel-mixed model. In the case of the Gunbel-logistic model, there is a large difference in the return periods for different combinations of flood characteristics, with a difference of 800 years in the payback period. It can be seen that the calculation of the flood frequency of the binary variables, the selection of the model and the combination of the flood feature quantities are the main factors that determine the result of the flood frequency.