论文部分内容阅读
以黄河三角洲地区为例,将集对分析法和脆弱性评价模型相结合,从敏感性和应对性两方面建立指标体系,分析其2000—2014年社会脆弱性及其演变规律,运用多元线性回归分析、相关分析和障碍度模型等方法分析其影响因素。得出如下结论:整体而言,2000—2014年黄河三角洲地区敏感性指数呈现下降趋势,应对性指数呈现上升趋势,社会脆弱性指数呈现下降趋势;应对性是社会脆弱性的主要影响因素,经济、社会、生态环境对社会敏感性产生的扰动比较均衡,其中经济因素的扰动相对突出,生态环境约束下基础设施建设滞后和产业结构层次偏低是应对性的主要障碍因素。研究从强化基础设施支撑、完善高效生态产业体系以及培育经济新增长点、注重环境保护与生态保育三方面提出规避社会脆弱性的对策建议。
Taking the Yellow River Delta as an example, this paper combines the set-pair analysis method and the vulnerability assessment model to establish the index system from both sensitivity and coping to analyze the social vulnerability and its evolution from 2000 to 2014. Using multiple linear regression Analysis, correlation analysis and obstacle degree model to analyze its influencing factors. The following conclusions are drawn: Overall, the sensitivity index of the Yellow River Delta between 2000 and 2014 showed a downward trend, the response index showed an upward trend and the social vulnerability index showed a downward trend; coping was the main factor affecting social vulnerability, and the economy The social and ecological environment disturbed the sensitivity of the society more evenly, among which the disturbance of economic factors was relatively prominent. The infrastructure construction lagging behind and the industrial structure level under the restriction of the ecological environment were the main obstacles to coping. The research proposes countermeasures and suggestions on how to evade social vulnerability by strengthening infrastructure support, perfecting efficient eco-industrial system, cultivating new economic growth point, paying attention to environmental protection and ecological conservation.