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本文应用逐步回归周期分析法,试对汉江安康水文站的年降水量和年最大洪峰流量进行长期预测,供有关部门参考。水文气象的长期变化,具有不明显的周期现象,用逐步回归周期分析法,是从已有资料中寻找气象变化有显著影响的隐函周期,并建立回归方程,从而对未来作出预测。该方法的具体步骤是:第一步,建立不同长度的隐函周期。其长度为2～n/2,n为已有资料的年数,如安康站有年降水和洪峰流量实测连续资料36年,周期的长度为L(L=2,3,4…18)共17个周期函数,即认为降水具有以L年为一个周期的变化,具体计算时将已有资料分别按L年为周期相加,求出相应的平均值,作为该周期的函数值
This paper applies the stepwise regression period analysis method to test the long-term prediction of the annual precipitation and the annual maximum flood peak at the Ankang hydrological station of Han River for reference by the relevant departments. The long-term change of hydrological meteorology has an obvious period phenomenon. The step-by-step regression analysis method is a latent period which has a significant influence on meteorological change from existing data and establishes a regression equation to predict the future. The specific steps of the method are as follows: The first step is to establish implicit communication periods of different lengths. Its length is 2 ~ n / 2, n is the number of years of available data. For example, Ankang Station has 36 consecutive years of measured data of annual precipitation and peak flow, and the length of the cycle is L (L = 2,3,4 ... 18) A periodic function, that is, precipitation with L years for a period of change, the specific calculation of the existing data were respectively L years plus the period, find the corresponding average, as a function of the value of the cycle