基于季节指数分析蔬菜价格和上市量的波动趋势,并进一步构建了蔬菜价格预测计量模型。结果表明:蔬菜整体的价格和上市量总体呈现出波动上升趋势,且具有显著的季节性;果菜、叶菜和根茎菜年均价格呈现出波动上升趋势,而上市量走势总体均保持平稳上升趋势,且具有明显的季节性变化;在未来2年蔬菜价格均继续呈现出季节性变动的缓慢上升趋势,且价格变动并不是由季节这单一因素主导,还受到其它随机因素影响,尤其是叶菜表现最为明显。 Based on the seasonal index, this paper analyzes the trend of vegetable prices and the listing volume, and further builds a vegetable price forecasting measurement model. The results showed that: the overall price of vegetables and the amount of listing showed an overall upward trend of fluctuations, and with a significant seasonal; fruit, leafy vegetables and rhizomes annual price fluctuations showed an upward trend, while the overall trend of listing volume remained steady upward trend , With obvious seasonal changes. In the next two years, the vegetable prices continued to show a seasonal upward trend. The price change was not dominated by the single factor of the season, but also influenced by other random factors, especially the leafy vegetables The most obvious performance.